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The US was overconfident before the war. Iran may be overconfident now.

This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman's northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026. | AFP via Getty Images If you can think back to the distant days of March 2026, you’ll remember that the US-Iran war was, at one point, primarily a conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, though at times it was also about Iran’s treatment of protesters, threat to Israel, missile program, and support for regional proxies. Key takeaways This week’s return to fighting in the Middle East made clear that the US-Iran conflict is now primarily a fight over Iran’s...