A betting page on Kalshi about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. | Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Bettors on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on the current conflict in Iran. Which means lots and lots of folks are trying to get rich betting on wars.
In the lead-up to the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, prediction markets saw a frenzy of activity tied to the conflict. Users of prediction markets were putting down money on when the first bombs would drop, as well as where the bombs might hit. But one of the...
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