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Second Thoughts: Will Carson Hocevar Be Next First-Time Cup Winner?

Ty Gibbs won his first Cup race in his 131st start. Many would have thought it would be sooner, but it’s not rare for a driver to need around 100 starts to earn his first win. Of the 26 full-time Cup drivers who have a win, their average first career win came in their 91st start. There are 10 full-time drivers in Cup who don’t have a win. Only one has fewer than 50 starts and that's Connor Zilisch. And yet, when looking at the drivers who might get their first career Cup win, he’s near the top of the list. But he’s not at the top. Here’s how I’d rank the drivers who haven’t won and their chanc...